HiMCM 2012 · Problem set
A wildlife-management problem paired with a household-finance forecasting problem. Problem A asks teams to model the reintroduction of elk into Great Smoky Mountains National Park, decide whether the herd will persist or die out under current conditions, and recommend interventions that improve long-run growth. Problem B asks teams to build a simple, defensible rule a consumer can follow each week — buy a full tank or a half tank? — based on observable weekly U.S. gasoline-price data, then validate the rule out-of-sample against a different year and at least one major-city market.
| Contest dates | November 8 – November 19, 2012 (extended weekend window) [illustrative] |
| Participation | ~450 teams, predominantly United States and China [illustrative] |
| Problem A | American Elk — stage-structured population model, viability under reintroduction, intervention recommendations |
| Problem B | How Much Gas Should I Buy This Week? — weekly price series, decision policy (full vs. half tank), out-of-sample validation |
| Official results | 2012 HiMCM problems & commentary |
The two problems
American Elk
Reintroduced elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park: build a population model, decide whether the herd persists or dies out, and propose interventions — adult survival, calf recruitment, supplemental releases — that improve long-run growth. Deliver a letter to the Wildlife Commissioner.
How Much Gas Should I Buy This Week?
From weekly 2011 U.S. gasoline prices, design a rule a consumer can apply each Monday: full tank or half tank? Validate against 2012 prices and at least one major city. Examine how typical weekly driving distance changes the answer. Deliver a newspaper-ready letter.
Why this year is good practice
- Two very different model archetypes. A is a stage-structured population model (a Leslie / Lefkovitch matrix with stochastic vital rates); B is a rolling-window time-series decision policy. Together they cover the two pillars judges reward — dynamics over time and decisions under uncertainty.
- Real public data. EIA weekly retail gasoline series and elk reintroduction reports from the National Park Service are both freely available, so every assumption can be grounded in a citation rather than a guess.
- Two non-technical deliverables. A demands a Wildlife Commissioner letter, B demands a newspaper-suitable letter. Strong papers nail the executive paragraph and one chart that a non-modeler can read in 30 seconds.